1. Risks as facts: Risks are treated as objective, technical,
neutral events that can be managed based on the knowledge produced by
objective analysis using probabilities and expected values. The outcome
is rational decision making.
2. Risks as subjective constructions with multiple dimensions:
Risk managers choose the context and perspective they adopt. This
allows multiple rationalities to coexist, depending on the values and
perspectives of the observers. (This explains why some people find
jumping out of an aircraft fun.)
From a project perspective,
risks are uncertainties that matter. All estimates about future project
outcomes incorporate a degree of uncertainty. This includes the three
key dimensions of project management: timing, cost and quality of future
project deliverables.
The project manager cannot be certain
that the estimates that make up the project schedule or cost plan will
prove to be correct, or that the project team will create deliverables
to the appropriate quality standards. The rational management approach
is to assess the risk factors and develop appropriate time and cost
contingencies, backed by appropriate reviews and tests to ensure optimum
quality. This approach is highly objective and rational.
However, you cannot rely on your stakeholders having the same view as you. If a stakeholder sees your project in a different context, their perspective on risk will be different.
For
example, if you created a contingency plan using a Monte Carlo
analysis, an executive may interpret the plan as a sign you don't
understand the project because he or she expects a single definitive
result. From this stakeholder's perspective, the precise calculation of a
critical path method schedule offers certainty and minimum risk.
The authors of A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK® Guide)
have a different perspective, which understands the benefits of
'three-point estimating.' You cannot assume your stakeholder will have
the same view.
The challenge is to accept that a range of
stakeholder perspectives will occur. Stakeholders may derive completely
different opinions from the same data.
You should anticipate
this possibility and adjust the way you package your project information
to communicate more effectively and ensure both you and your key
stakeholders have a common understanding of the risks and issues
confronting you project.
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